NCAS involved in high level discussions on global capability for regional climate predictions

From 6-9th May 2008, scientists from all over the world gathered at Reading's European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), to discuss the status of current generation climate models. In particular they discussed whether the predictions of regional climate change are adequately reliable for providing guidance to mitigation and adaptation strategies being developed by governments and industry around the world. These strategies are now a requirement for coping with the consequences of a changing climate. The predictions discussed include those for high impact, hazardous weather.

Interestingly, a starting point for the meeting was the conclusion from a working group already set up by the World Climate Research Program and the World Weather Research Programme, that "regional projections from the current generation of climate models are sufficiently uncertain to compromise this goal of providing society with reliable predictions of regional climate change". A recommendation of the working group was therefore to "revolutionise climate prediction" with the realisation that this needed to be done through international collaboration. A goal of this World Modelling Summit was to recommend a realistic roadmap for how this "revolution" in climate prediction might be achieved.

Detailed scientific discussions included:
Whether increasing the spatial resolution in current climate models to the point that ocean overflows, mesoscale eddies, deep convective cloud systems and processes at the land surface could be resolved (ie not paramterised), would increase the models' skill in simulating the current climate;
How accurate simulations from the physical climate model need to be before including the additional complex chemical and biological processes in the Earth-system and how to address the different time and space scales, and uncertainites associated with the different processes;
Whether a major effort (computing power, personnel) should be made in the area of data assimilation for very high resolution modelling, to enhance the value of observations being made from space (in which the UK currently invests significantly).

Strategic questions were asked about how best to ensure enhanced modelling efforts and computing power at existing modelling centres around the world and whether, in addition to individual national efforts, the time had come for nations to work together in a more co-ordinated, collaborative way to improve regional climate and weather predictions. A suggestion was made for a dedicated, international supercomputing facility and development of an international collaborative research framework.

At the end of the four-day meeting the scientists had agreed that massive investment in computer and research resources was critical for revolutionising modelling capabilities so that predictions could capture the detail required to inform policy. Professor Julia Slingo, Director of the NCAS Climate programme and part of the International Organising Committee for the Summit, told BBC News that several hundred million pounds of investment were needed. "In terms of computing power, its proving totally inadequate", she said.

However, questions were raised amongst participants about how such increased investment could be divided between new facilities and existing ones. Although everyone was agreed that substantial investment was necessary, some were not convinced that a single global institute was the way to go, fearing that this could threaten national centres by taking away the responsibility for individual governments to fund them.

  For more information on this Summit and some of its conclusions see:

• World Summit for Climate Modelling website 
• Nature News, May 14th 2008, author Olive Heffernan "They say they want a revolution. Climate scientists call for major new modelling facility" Published online 14 May 2008 | Nature | doi:10.1038/453268a 
• Nature Editorial, The Next Big Climate Challenge  Nature 453, 257 (15 May 2008) | doi:10.1038/453257a; Published online 14 May 2008

Media Coverage

• BBC News. Climate Prediction: No Model for Success featuring Dr Pier Luigi Vidale, NCAS Climate scientist based at the University of Reading and Professor Julia Slingo, NCAS Director of the Climate research programme.
• BBC Radio 4's Today Programme, Tuesday 6th May. Professor Julia Slingo interviewed.
• BBC2 TV Newsnight, Tuesday 6th May . Featuring Dr Pier Luigi Vidale, NCAS Climate Scientist based at the University of Reading.
• Nature News, May 14th 2008, author Olive Heffernan "They say they want a revolution. Climate scientists call for major new modelling facility"  Published online 14 May 2008 | Nature | doi:10.1038/453268a Featuring Professor Julia Slingo, NCAS-Climate and a high resolution, computer simulated image produced by NCAS and the Met Office.
• Nature Editorial, The Next Big Climate Challenge  Nature 453, 257 (15 May 2008) | doi:10.1038/453257a; Published online 14 May 2008
• University of Reading press release: Scientists from the University of Reading make major contribution to World Climate Modelling Summit 

Contacts:

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Dr Pier Luigi Vidale: NCAS Climate Scientist

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